Asian League · resolved market
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa84faec3892b71029b5f2b4aa0a0ed892dab19ae4112cb9556eeda150780a50e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,720$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.06 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 999.93$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.97 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…5417backed Over | 76c | 297.37$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 42c | 257.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 191.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 55c | 135.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 39c | 104.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 55c | 103.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 63c | 94.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 85.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 55c | 72.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 67.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 30c | 54.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 50c | 51.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 50c | 42.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 37c | 32.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under | 55c | 30.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…577abacked Under | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Over | 59c | 21.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.7wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5this page
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Over won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Under won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.