Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8507da180fe322499a79d158621035b4549277adcc1c904843723928e608965
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 11c | 914$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba8…e4e4backed No | 3c | 557.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 506.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 488.2$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 484.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 367.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.79 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 279.05$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 45c | 236.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.61 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 6c | 212.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 192.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 157.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 140.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 11c | 126.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 13c | 115.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 114.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 47c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 82.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 41c | 77.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 29c | 68.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 77c | 57.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 56c | 56.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 37c | 56.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…fe71backed No | 76c | 55.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1b…546cbacked Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 47c | 53.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 58c | 40.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 34c | 31.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 49c | 24.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 70c | 22.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 58c | 21.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 70c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 55c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 64c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 75c | 13.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.