Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32fca92781f7f157584bf2c9cb60ce84056c924d0e95e7eb0d6939de9d9c05de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,190 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 2,251$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 22c | 480.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 409.6$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 26c | 332$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 331.79$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 3c | 325.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 17c | 215.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 25c | 182.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 106.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 98.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 26c | 97.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 85.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 82.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…08a8backed Yes | 27c | 72.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 69.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 32c | 62.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 58.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 24c | 56.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 18c | 54.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 28c | 54.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 21c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…9813backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…7186backed Yes | 26c | 49.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 47.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…90e7backed No | 80c | 34.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 24.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d5…d0d0backed No | 77c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 20.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked No | 76c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.