Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa882f8cf7b7b70a016e5f1c3f65689f7196862d34a51c225c504fd7d9099630d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 867.43$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.92 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 354.59$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 303.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 230.11$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 224.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 31c | 219.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 204.82$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 201.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 145.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 126.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 121.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 119.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 119.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 54c | 108.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 98.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 33c | 88.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 84.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 77.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 50c | 67.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 60.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 57.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 43c | 55.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 59c | 55.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 36c | 55.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 53.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Yes | 45c | 52.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 55c | 51.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 53c | 50.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 46.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 43.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 43.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 39.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 36.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 33.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 52c | 33.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 33.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 29.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 62c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 23.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 62c | 21.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 15.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.