Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb814dcfaf56df4c5f8641a1ab7e6a76c4be7691f2b6122860f20875f099d14f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 744.2$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 49c | 699.89$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 74c | 512.01$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 294.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 49c | 283.74$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 240.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 213.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 203.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 51c | 184.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 41c | 161.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 155.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 151.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 133.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 131$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 61c | 128$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 125.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 122.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 118.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 57c | 113.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 73c | 108.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 98.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 54c | 74.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 73.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 52c | 67.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 44c | 62.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 58.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 54c | 55.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 47c | 55.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 52.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 23c | 43.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 43.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 62c | 40.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 51c | 39.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 51c | 38.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 41c | 36.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 34.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 32.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 57c | 30.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed No | 52c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 49c | 28.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 46c | 24.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 78c | 23.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed No | 45c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 50c | 21.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8a…75f7backed Yes | 59c | 21.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 21.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 49c | 20.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…f04dbacked Yes | 56c | 19.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 19.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.