South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-11-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa884255c0c6cabf0d61d604ce4b53a708ebb7fc88a0ed5dc97cc6ca032a61731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 2,339$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.39 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Yes | 60c | 1,843$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbe…2765backed Yes | 28c | 1,436$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 79c | 1,429$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.59 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 38c | 1,160$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.18 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked Yes | 35c | 962.04$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 910.51$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 899.43$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.88 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 18c | 885$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.63 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 28c | 789.27$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 767.72$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.11 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 57c | 428.63$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.09 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…f39cbacked Yes | 29c | 301$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 284.53$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 47c | 266.53$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 24c | 255$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…0645backed Yes | 24c | 198.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 120.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x344e…121bbacked Yes | 28c | 72.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 63c | 64.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Yes | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…d81cbacked Yes | 46c | 56.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Yes | 59c | 34.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…18afbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…252abacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…a538backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…ddaabacked Yes | 63c | 19.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f9…34b8backed Yes | 65c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…1890backed Yes | 75c | 16.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-11-30?this page
- Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?No won
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.