South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe92f68a78e9c500639a366fe8d73c0c8a1197fc9cd096ce378a1b65c37c71ab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 68c | 1,141$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.59 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 1,108$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.36 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 64c | 1,055$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.84 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 696.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.13 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 28c | 574.39$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 571$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.88 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 26c | 549.45$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.12 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…b388backed No | 71c | 463.38$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 40c | 260$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 247.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 37c | 228.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…6e5ebacked Yes | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 141.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 29c | 137.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…0645backed Yes | 32c | 115.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 45c | 106.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 28c | 104.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 128 | 64.8%83 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Yes | 75c | 66.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 63.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…c5fbbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 71c | 50.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea9…be41backed Yes | 29c | 46.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked No | 32c | 42.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 29c | 34.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7d…c346backed Yes | 73c | 30.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…394cbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-11-30?No won
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.