South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-11-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11241307c5c64d8886be7bae899ced820c064c3ae2e317954c80a72ac9170f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 54c | 9,332$5,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.06 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Yes | 32c | 5,040$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,446.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 77c | 3,391$2,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.66 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 3,218$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.33 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 2,082$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.49 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,535$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.44 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 28c | 890$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.8 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf87…a5a9backed Yes | 32c | 848.6$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 55c | 678.95$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.21 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 54c | 598.22$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.26 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 43c | 577$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.89 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 424.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 76c | 327.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.24 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 55c | 231.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 55c | 199.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 45c | 198.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 65c | 168.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…df3cbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 151$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea9…be41backed Yes | 45c | 117$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…fc05backed No | 55c | 109$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c701backed Yes | 33c | 106.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 42c | 104.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…09ddbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…0677backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 35c | 79.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 25c | 71.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 55c | 70.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 25c | 70.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 54c | 58.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 52c | 58.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…c373backed Yes | 45c | 56.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 54c | 56.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd45c…5c43backed Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Yes | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…a309backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 75c | 36.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 45c | 34.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…0e65backed Yes | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb7…4a50backed Yes | 45c | 22.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-11-30?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-11-30?No won
- Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.