Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 42°F or higher on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa88806e3bb910d9bab0a6646a19252959f9413f70fc5d4b6045d8799b38eadda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 69c | 3,011$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.68 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 2,838$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957.97 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 1,945$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 69c | 600$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…9762backed No | 5c | 338.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 63c | 281.48$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.57 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 54c | 268.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 7c | 257.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.36 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 256$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 52c | 227.57$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 51c | 221.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 214.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 212.42$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 197.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 47c | 194.29$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…c4c5backed Yes | 29c | 192.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 32c | 181.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 37c | 180.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 57c | 175$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 168.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 26c | 162.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 41c | 158.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 36c | 128.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 45c | 121.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 50c | 104.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 97.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 90.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed No | 61c | 81.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 41c | 81.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 51c | 71.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 48c | 67.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked Yes | 37c | 66.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed No | 44c | 64.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 21c | 63.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.58per pick | 24cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 38c | 60.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 65c | 57.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…c1bdbacked No | 55c | 50.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 79c | 49.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 59c | 48.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 31c | 45.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b87…14c7backed Yes | 34c | 43.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 31c | 42.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…1ce6backed Yes | 36c | 41.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 59c | 36.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…4853backed Yes | 50c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 65c | 32.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d5…dd4fbacked Yes | 38c | 31.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 28.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a7…7fa5backed Yes | 55c | 25.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8906…eae9backed No | 60c | 24.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…dba7backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 23.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2959…38efbacked Yes | 47c | 23.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61f…040abacked Yes | 47c | 23.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1f…efe1backed Yes | 50c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 18.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…bed8backed No | 66c | 17.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…230ebacked No | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed No | 77c | 13.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 42°F or higher on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.