Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89d9dacbc23c458245fbc6fa82cea843f7513737fa61c00c094102f6d8f0aee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 1,819$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,745$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 56c | 921.3$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.48 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 58c | 800$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.13 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 681.95$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.42 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 56c | 625$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 58c | 459.12$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 386.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 14c | 285.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 41c | 133.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 42c | 113.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…7cb7backed Over | 56c | 100.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 57c | 81.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 51.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 41c | 32.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 32.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 57c | 31.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.