NHL · resolved market
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Rockford IceHogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8a390ee0e4645fc33b64099211bf9cebe03724c36dc9a1d96588860f45d0255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rockford IceHogsof Chicago Wolves, Rockford IceHogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Rockford IceHogs | 44c | 784.46$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.27 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Chicago Wolves | 55c | 518$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.9 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rockford IceHogs | 52c | 175.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Rockford IceHogs | 44c | 135.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Chicago Wolves | 54c | 128.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Chicago Wolves | 56c | 116$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Chicago Wolves | 56c | 88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Chicago Wolves | 56c | 81.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Rockford IceHogs | 45c | 77.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Chicago Wolves | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Chicago Wolves | 57c | 64.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Chicago Wolves | 56c | 42.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Chicago Wolves | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Chicago Wolves | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Rockford IceHogs | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Rockford IceHogs | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.