NBA · resolved market
Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics: Game 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9067bfd1be2684443c45b96beb753380e4cbe7a3d7a1b7739583a8a79bc6c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Pacers, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Celtics | 72c | 4,400$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Celtics | 73c | 3,067$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…cdc4backed Pacers | 31c | 1,999$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Pacers | 28c | 1,968$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.97 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…49f9backed Celtics | 69c | 1,667$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734d…b810backed Pacers | 28c | 1,586$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Pacers | 28c | 1,290$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…bc78backed Pacers | 30c | 925.53$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Pacers | 27c | 658.59$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.82 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Pacers | 30c | 602.96$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.89 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa096…aa97backed Pacers | 28c | 566.98$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Pacers | 27c | 510.56$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Pacers | 27c | 500.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Celtics | 71c | 453$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Celtics | 74c | 371.62$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Pacers | 29c | 339.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Celtics | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Celtics | 22c | 50.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…4209backed Pacers | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa9…1d54backed Celtics | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…1ecbbacked Celtics | 72c | 32.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd6…0ec1backed Celtics | 72c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Pacers | 67c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e0…8d55backed Celtics | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.