Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa91f8bb9f8b5050ff8d6b7466f41bfc2692872d8a6960a601a01aabc699832e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 1,736$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.22 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed No | 80c | 497.26$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 483.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Yes | 12c | 396.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 15c | 310.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Yes | 19c | 199.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 19c | 150.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 21c | 149.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked No | 79c | 126.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 21c | 121.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 79c | 121.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 20c | 107.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 19c | 92.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 18c | 79.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…3018backed No | 79c | 21.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Thun win on 2026-08-20?No won
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-08-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.