Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa93dd6df3d906e55c1d17c42096e6a6c6e7fda277e14950c613c5dbf4e22c227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roberto Carballes Baenaof Mark Ceban, Roberto Carballes Baena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Mark Ceban | 13c | 5,364$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.22 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Mark Ceban | 7c | 1,772$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Mark Ceban | 14c | 1,213$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Mark Ceban | 4c | 1,141$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Mark Ceban | 11c | 1,091$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Mark Ceban | 12c | 942.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Mark Ceban | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Mark Ceban | 11c | 799.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…ca30backed Mark Ceban | 6c | 692.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Mark Ceban | 12c | 616.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 280 | 48.9%137 W · 143 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mark Ceban | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Mark Ceban | 13c | 369.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Mark Ceban | 13c | 180.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Mark Ceban | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Mark Ceban | 12c | 144.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.