Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa982701b60690399b24014816c0b06b68a476deacb9925851fe6c8d73764b8b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 1,914$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 809.05$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 765.93$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Over | 16c | 357.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 37c | 324.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Under | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 14c | 174.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 157.43$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b3cbacked Over | 19c | 131.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 130.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 38c | 125$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 26c | 124.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 38c | 108.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 56c | 98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 44c | 98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 39c | 81.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 52.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 26c | 47.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 40c | 46.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Under | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 57c | 26.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 79c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 79c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 79c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 79c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Under | 78c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 78c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 78c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 78c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 78c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.