Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d26ec9d6fdb41420dcb1e2de8023c76e71e9b1aeb8291d64b355621ab2b0d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Yes | 46c | 868.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 518.21$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…8fc6backed Yes | 28c | 430$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 38c | 302.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed No | 71c | 102.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 43c | 94.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 63c | 78.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 62.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…1df8backed Yes | 42c | 59.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 44c | 31.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 57c | 28.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 55c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 55c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 55c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 62c | 27.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 56c | 23.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 54c | 21.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked No | 54c | 21.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.