Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa99f1bf222adb9927ae2c106488076dfa253635cd2722e2b9684da0810826044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Fonseca, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fonseca | 46c | 1,493$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.62 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Rinderknech | 53c | 1,331$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.8 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Rinderknech | 55c | 884.55$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.05 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed Rinderknech | 53c | 576.55$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.44 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Rinderknech | 53c | 575.59$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.75 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Rinderknech | 45c | 426.88$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 49c | 399.62$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.66 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rinderknech | 40c | 360.62$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.79 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Fonseca | 73c | 296.31$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.44 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Fonseca | 54c | 272.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.58 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Fonseca | 46c | 217.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…9fc1backed Fonseca | 52c | 216.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Rinderknech | 51c | 208.47$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…7811backed Fonseca | 52c | 197.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Fonseca | 56c | 174.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Fonseca | 48c | 161.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 211 | 49.8%105 W · 106 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Fonseca | 47c | 138.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Rinderknech | 65c | 130.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 226 | 46%104 W · 122 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Fonseca | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Rinderknech | 54c | 99.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rinderknech | 48c | 94.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…61babacked Fonseca | 48c | 82.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Rinderknech | 51c | 55.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Fonseca | 61c | 52.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Fonseca | 47c | 52.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Fonseca | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Fonseca | 48c | 47.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…5853backed Fonseca | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Fonseca | 48c | 42.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Fonseca | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Fonseca | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Fonseca | 48c | 37.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Fonseca | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…7ea5backed Fonseca | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Fonseca | 69c | 31.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Fonseca | 49c | 30.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Fonseca | 49c | 22.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Fonseca | 51c | 21.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Rinderknech | 57c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)this page
- Fonseca vs. Rinderknech: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Rinderknech: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Arthur Rinderknech: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur RinderknechJoao Fonseca won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs RinderknechFonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.