NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9a5bf2c5a3b05c2855bbbc24ca9c07056db19343b4c6b9e53778b03131df494
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Red Wings, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Canucks | 66c | 9,193$6,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,022.44 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings | 35c | 6,792$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,431.92 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Canucks | 66c | 3,001$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.66 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Red Wings | 34c | 3,001$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.66 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Canucks | 64c | 2,650$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.96 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Red Wings | 35c | 2,400$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Red Wings | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Red Wings | 34c | 700$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Canucks | 63c | 239.38$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Canucks | 62c | 106.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Red Wings | 34c | 101.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Red Wings | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Red Wings | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Canucks | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Canucks | 64c | 84.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Red Wings | 37c | 77.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Red Wings | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Canucks | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -9.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Red Wings | 35c | 49.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 36c | 48.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Red Wings | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Red Wings | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Red Wings | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canucks | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Red Wings | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed Canucks | 63c | 29.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Canucks | 64c | 20.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Canucks | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Canucks vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Canucks vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canucks vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.