College Football · resolved market
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati: O/U 56.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d3653c9f6110a1f951e7b99987414d1cfd97718782156b82f20a64c99500c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 55c | 25,000$13,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,750 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 45c | 21,727$9,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,950.05 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 55c | 9,239$5,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,081.51 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 46c | 7,666$3,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,145.36 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 45c | 6,562$2,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,609.1 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 55c | 2,800$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 2,544$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Under | 54c | 1,850$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Over | 45c | 605$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.85 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Over | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Over | 45c | 504$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 388$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 45c | 232$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 50c | 197.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 45c | 162$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 50c | 127$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…a77dbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iowa State vs. Cincinnati: O/U 56.5this page
- Iowa State vs. CincinnatiCincinnati won
- O/U 53.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati (-1.5)Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.