Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d585e53ea86d67d5f26a5ef1c85a2fc8ba8be5d45fb44489b24c1df6053348
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,461 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x702b…dedebacked Yes | 24c | 2,562$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 2,348$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.04 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 16c | 1,118$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.87 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 868.23$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.53 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 66c | 662.45$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.83 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 27c | 600.36$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c1…a528backed Yes | 23c | 508.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…18c4backed No | 77c | 461$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 211.49$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 18c | 151.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 60c | 146.17$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 10c | 145.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 41c | 135.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 73c | 115.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 34c | 79.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 24c | 64.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 41c | 55.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 68c | 42.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…41d1backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-06?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.