Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9aaad22378ac784c0acb4667f26f85ef63a04905c1b148be3531c6551789100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,645 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 76c | 6,600$5,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.99 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.98 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 1,552$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.5 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 24c | 1,300$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 1,249$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 1,151$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c1…a528backed Yes | 25c | 1,076$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 27c | 1,064$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.46 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 3c | 768.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 715.51$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.34 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 24c | 709.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 20c | 469.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 433.17$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Yes | 25c | 344$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 22c | 330.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…9a07backed No | 77c | 207.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 189.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 23c | 151.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…5d96backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 137.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 76c | 97.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…843bbacked Yes | 17c | 94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Yes | 24c | 64.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 57.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Yes | 23c | 55.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…cd95backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 24c | 48.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed No | 78c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 26.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…bd7fbacked No | 76c | 23.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…41d1backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-06?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.