Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9ed4a40d7a8558a7c9d611274c40765fa5c00e4156a4187b2324feab089169b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 1c | 2,348$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Down | 21c | 1,718$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 16c | 1,470$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.85 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Down | 7c | 1,266$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…8443backed Down | 5c | 1,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…63ddbacked Up | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…90d1backed Up | 71c | 613.35$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…e34bbacked Down | 35c | 574.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…2313backed Down | 8c | 346.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…2c64backed Down | 4c | 322.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 65c | 262.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Down | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Down | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed Down | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Down | 6c | 176.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…1ef2backed Down | 31c | 149.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Up | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6885…973ebacked Down | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Down | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…da55backed Down | 18c | 115.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…c815backed Up | 64c | 109.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…3aaebacked Up | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…10c7backed Down | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…49c3backed Up | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…dd00backed Down | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…0672backed Down | 19c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 64c | 97.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…6094backed Down | 19c | 90.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Up | 67c | 75.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…33d4backed Down | 22c | 73.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b1…7590backed Down | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Down | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2817…1fc4backed Down | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57da…a280backed Down | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b4…e8bdbacked Down | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…cc0bbacked Up | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…17afbacked Up | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Up | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Up | 64c | 25.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…c693backed Up | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.