Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa259f2cf5b61239ede147008cdcc249980768720a14750437593f1522ca88c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,183$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 10c | 456.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…ef3fbacked Yes | 7c | 368$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 77c | 255.13$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…a85ebacked Yes | 11c | 194.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 36c | 183.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 11c | 167.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…3d45backed Yes | 15c | 147$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 10c | 102.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 57c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…b4a7backed No | 70c | 70.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 72c | 57.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 79c | 49.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 52c | 25.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfd…6ac9backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?this page
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will Darline Graham vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No won
- Will Rand Paul vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No won
- Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.