Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadd7c9c68773d54c82a4cab23a44d13b5c48d63aa5fc6aefe8512a1d4861db66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 78c | 256.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…63d9backed No | 77c | 51.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked No | 77c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 68cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e24…7e71backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?this page
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will Darline Graham vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No won
- Will Rand Paul vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
- Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.