Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rosbach: Kai Wehnelt vs Niels Mcdonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2b2951ef76ecf387c11629ba05fa1f56940c4aef3c04e5d92f1cbc61487818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Niels Mcdonaldof Kai Wehnelt, Niels Mcdonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a67…e403backed Niels Mcdonald | 52c | 2,280$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.3 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kai Wehnelt | 44c | 2,174$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.45 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kai Wehnelt | 44c | 1,265$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.6 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kai Wehnelt | 40c | 467.45$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Kai Wehnelt | 36c | 427.14$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Niels Mcdonald | 59c | 417.12$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Kai Wehnelt | 59c | 400.04$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.73 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Niels Mcdonald | 79c | 252$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Kai Wehnelt | 43c | 205.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Niels Mcdonald | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Kai Wehnelt | 45c | 117.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Niels Mcdonald | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed Niels Mcdonald | 55c | 100.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Niels Mcdonald | 57c | 98.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Niels Mcdonald | 54c | 88.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Niels Mcdonald | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Niels Mcdonald | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kai Wehnelt | 43c | 62.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Niels Mcdonald | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Kai Wehnelt | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Niels Mcdonald | 39c | 44.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kai Wehnelt | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Niels Mcdonald | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Niels Mcdonald | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Niels Mcdonald | 60c | 36.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Kai Wehnelt | 40c | 30.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Kai Wehnelt | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.