Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2de4fec8cf3d17175edff5230c2056aae7a8e318efb6f884efe3ae56ae5381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 2,605$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.6 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 73c | 1,048$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.93 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 762.96$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…023dbacked Yes | 27c | 370.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…ca3dbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 29c | 312.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 256$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…32d3backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 249.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 22c | 221.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 30c | 141.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 32c | 141.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 137$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…c2debacked Yes | 16c | 127.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…cfeebacked Yes | 35c | 125.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 107.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 76.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Yes | 26c | 73.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Yes | 25c | 72.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Yes | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d96…4f2ebacked Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-01-26?Yes won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-01-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.