Serie A · resolved market
Will AS Roma vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa41fbd3e6eeca57c439b8439ef8ca16b9428cd4f2ffa0887726f7fe826d9377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 80c | 9,792$7,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.42 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 20c | 9,760$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.96 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 18c | 1,222$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Yes | 2c | 909.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…2529backed Yes | 18c | 738.32$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes | 9c | 560$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 18c | 550$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 80c | 537.71$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 17c | 408.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…9e3cbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 80c | 270$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 19c | 258$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 18c | 177.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 21c | 115.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 74c | 112$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 32c | 79.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…716bbacked Yes | 19c | 52.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed No | 80c | 36.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 80c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 76c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Roma vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-22?Yes won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2026-02-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.