World Politics · resolved market
Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4a28609b8687578cbe1bcc3825de4e1b6166f2c39e4c649c738a25f852e003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 7c | 2,066$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,737$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…66ffbacked Yes | 7c | 1,623$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…5cffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,457$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 1,269$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…e44ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,154$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 10c | 671.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 16c | 603$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 564.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 562.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 20c | 494.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x720d…734dbacked Yes | 8c | 412.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 11c | 359.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 14c | 269.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…46f9backed Yes | 8c | 250.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e29…efb0backed Yes | 7c | 247.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 9c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8df…11dabacked Yes | 21c | 173.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd037…15aebacked Yes | 8c | 145.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…40dbbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…a2a6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked Yes | 48c | 83.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…84f2backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 71c | 23.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…78e8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 71c | 18.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.