TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Michigan Wolverinesof Villanova Wildcats, Michigan Wolverines
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,462
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,462 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Villanova Wildcats9c4,672$400 inLost-$400.362,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x284e…c695backed Villanova Wildcats8c2,500$200 inLost-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a43…2fcebacked Villanova Wildcats6c1,700$102 inLost-$102425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…5408backed Villanova Wildcats1c1,000$10 inLost-$10156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Villanova Wildcats7c823.1$58 inLost-$57.621,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…0484backed Villanova Wildcats8c598.21$45 inLost-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Villanova Wildcats6c589.95$35 inLost-$35.4452928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Villanova Wildcats3c514.08$16 inLost-$15.851,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Villanova Wildcats4c510.73$20 inLost-$20.051,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Villanova Wildcats7c309.91$21 inLost-$211,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Villanova Wildcats8c300$24 inLost-$2417740.7%72 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Villanova Wildcats9c281.2$25 inLost-$24.587450%37 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Villanova Wildcats8c249.99$20 inLost-$2065825.7%169 W · 489 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Villanova Wildcats7c174.2$12 inLost-$12.192,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65fd…5dd3backed Villanova Wildcats8c155$12 inLost-$12.42040%8 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Villanova Wildcats8c125$10 inLost-$104334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.