Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d47199c7ba99fd8ee307f6f95e293941b4df093c9b0aa1e485165a8c439026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Villanova Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7435…a620backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 18,791$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,791.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Villanova Wildcats | 46c | 4,844$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.14 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Villanova Wildcats | 46c | 4,824$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.95 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Villanova Wildcats | 41c | 4,547$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.46 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 3,055$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.34 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 1,560$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.2 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…66a1backed Villanova Wildcats | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Villanova Wildcats | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Villanova Wildcats | 45c | 432.73$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Villanova Wildcats | 45c | 410$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Villanova Wildcats | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 379$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.13 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 333$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 219$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 212.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +14.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Villanova Wildcats | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Villanova Wildcats | 42c | 197$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Villanova Wildcats | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 117.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Villanova Wildcats | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881f…dfe9backed Villanova Wildcats | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Villanova Wildcats | 45c | 109.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Villanova Wildcats | 41c | 106$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…789fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Michigan Wolverines | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Michigan Wolverines | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Villanova Wildcats | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…27efbacked Villanova Wildcats | 42c | 42.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Michigan Wolverines | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Villanova Wildcats | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Villanova Wildcats | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Michigan Wolverines | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…f7f2backed Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Villanova Wildcats | 47c | 25.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Michigan Wolverines | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Michigan Wolverines | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Michigan Wolverines | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…31f0backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-17.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 149.5Over won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 151.5Under won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 152.5Under won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 153.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.