Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52dc50023bd36b95dab002eaf3ae4521a05c9bb1b8fb21275281a4026c752255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Villanova Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 5,670$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.45 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 4,267$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.89 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 1,231$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.12 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 821$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.92 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 430$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Villanova Wildcats | 45c | 399.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.73 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…1c8fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 332.73$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.73 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 235$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Villanova Wildcats | 49c | 176$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Villanova Wildcats | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Villanova Wildcats | 44c | 102$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Villanova Wildcats | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8c06backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 39.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Villanova Wildcats | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-17.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 149.5Over won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 151.5Under won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 152.5Under won
- Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 153.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.