TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb1ee…27ef

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NFL, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$16.63
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+51.5%+$15.77
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+88.7%+$9.07
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$15.87
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+42.2%+$14.49
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$23.16
Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+113.4%+$17.95
Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+96.1%+$15.12
Pistons vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+150%+$20.27
Spurs vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$24.56
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.51
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+104.1%+$15.65
Rockets vs. Jazzbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$114.29
Mavericks vs. Nuggetsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+220.7%+$75.67
Bulls vs. Magicbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$50.98
All 15 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Panthersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$16.47
Stars vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+122.2%+$15.93
Lightning vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$22.2
Red Wings vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$11.82
Rangers vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+132.6%+$13.75
Sabres vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12.74
Utah vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13.03
Golden Knights vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$11.43
Kraken vs. Oilersbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.51
Capitals vs. Sharksbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+75.4%+$14.52
Jets vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+112.8%+$17.9
Bruins vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+57.6%+$32.06
All 12 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Howard Bison vs. Drexel Dragons: O/U 139.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$19.3
Spread: Yale Bulldogs (-17.5)backed Yale Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.51
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)backed Villanova Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$17.98
Boise State Broncos vs. USC Trojansbacked Boise State Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$24.23
All 4 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+78.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. Packers: O/U 46.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+127.3%+$13.52
Bengals vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+42.9%+$10.72
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+66.7%+$13.51
All 3 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-11-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$10.32
Will Konyaspor vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3)backed M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$76.94
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.