NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64313db24d9c7c51eb984c26149141443e714455a4e216aa984936ffdb2d077f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Thunder | 53c | 25,510$13,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,989.87 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Mavericks | 47c | 7,588$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,566.41 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Mavericks | 47c | 6,187$2,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,908 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Mavericks | 47c | 4,127$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.69 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 46c | 4,058$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Mavericks | 47c | 3,500$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 46c | 3,097$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.66 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Mavericks | 48c | 2,073$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.04 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 52c | 2,070$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.41 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Thunder | 56c | 1,653$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.11 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Thunder | 54c | 1,588$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.48 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder | 53c | 1,400$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.07 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 53c | 1,082$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.37 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Mavericks | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Mavericks | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Mavericks | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 26c | 695.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Thunder | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 44c | 437$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Thunder | 65c | 403.38$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Mavericks | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Mavericks | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 45c | 387.92$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.08 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Thunder | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafc…dbadbacked Mavericks | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Mavericks | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Thunder | 54c | 293.78$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.14 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Mavericks | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e6…909fbacked Mavericks | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Mavericks | 50c | 229$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Mavericks | 46c | 225.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Mavericks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Mavericks | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 40c | 169.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Thunder | 54c | 131.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Mavericks | 59c | 109.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Mavericks | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Mavericks | 48c | 90.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Mavericks | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Mavericks | 47c | 85.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 54c | 80.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed Thunder | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…7c6cbacked Mavericks | 49c | 54.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 46c | 45.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 46c | 42.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Mavericks | 31c | 40.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Thunder | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mavericks | 47c | 36.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…27efbacked Mavericks | 47c | 33.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Thunder | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba82…600bbacked Thunder | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Mavericks | 46c | 25.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…8e6cbacked Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Mavericks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.