NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67cdbed4118ba19284a10f2e5c838d1a6c0aa3f99a98d3edca2057978e2ae142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Under | 52c | 13,998$7,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,278.88 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 55c | 13,746$7,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,208.15 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 6,865$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.74 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 49c | 5,500$2,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.48 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 5,467$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 46c | 5,452$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.76 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 3,286$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Over | 48c | 3,264$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.4 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…6f30backed Over | 52c | 2,661$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.42 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e9…d516backed Under | 48c | 2,448$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 2,014$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.73 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 1,917$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 47c | 1,557$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.79 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Over | 53c | 1,557$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.79 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 46c | 456.16$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.83 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 49c | 445.91$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Under | 53c | 404.53$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.4 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Over | 40c | 388.13$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.88 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 359.3$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 47c | 342.6$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.91 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…061cbacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 47c | 293.57$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 56c | 208.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed Under | 46c | 199.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…0d11backed Over | 48c | 193.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Over | 46c | 191.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 55c | 182.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c5…1f64backed Over | 55c | 144.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 117$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 48c | 113.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Under | 49c | 109$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…857ebacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…cdb1backed Under | 48c | 101.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 55c | 96.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e898backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 90.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…b756backed Over | 52c | 82.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 52c | 77.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…9a82backed Over | 46c | 75.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 46c | 71.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…942dbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 54c | 55.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Under | 48c | 50.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…6875backed Over | 54c | 47.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 55c | 38.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…0528backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…3d3abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…ec68backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Over | 53c | 25.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Mavericks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.