TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,168
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,168 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe653…c4a7backed Under53c12,000$6,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,359.9922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under51c5,336$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.579,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over49c3,500$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,78511242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over47c3,186$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.588,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over49c3,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,54036248.9%177 W · 185 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over47c2,640$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.24,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over47c2,512$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.15,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over47c2,330$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.6652460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Under48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under51c1,852$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.5269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over49c1,459$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.143,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over50c1,253$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6282,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Over51c1,025$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.2520542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Under52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52022053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Under50c681.46$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.7325642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Under51c525.23$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.872650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under53c518.87$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27540952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over47c491.97$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.7476054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Over55c270$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.88053.8%43 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under51c262$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.622,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Under51c220$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1950047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over47c209.36$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9652643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10014145.4%64 W · 77 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010652.8%56 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f20…87c9backed Under51c200$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.52128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10035739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under49c198.04$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0495049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0f…30e6backed Over50c195$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…df3dbacked Over50c190$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under50c182.21$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6580148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4b…14e2backed Under75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023547.7%112 W · 123 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over25c130.66$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.523,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under50c130$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over47c106.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.373,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c99…156dbacked Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af6…a1a1backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-58.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5363427.3%173 W · 461 L-19.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4912952.7%68 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Over51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0447738.2%182 W · 295 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf28…9144backed Under50c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-51.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa7ff…bd61backed Under50c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ab…7ecdbacked Under50c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under51c51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.011,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2538845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under46c47.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.832,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Over54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.34647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed Under53c45.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.127454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Over51c43.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1428856.9%164 W · 124 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba82…600bbacked Under53c30.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.411346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Over55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.