NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27e945244688adf372d4b8599d91113ea1892327e26821e9b97f820f8eaf92ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Under | 53c | 12,000$6,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,359.99 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 5,336$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 3,186$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 49c | 3,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 2,640$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 2,512$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.1 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 47c | 2,330$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.66 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 1,852$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.52 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 1,459$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 1,253$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 51c | 1,025$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.25 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 50c | 681.46$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.73 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 51c | 525.23$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 53c | 518.87$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 47c | 491.97$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.74 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 55c | 270$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 262$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 47c | 209.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed Under | 51c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 49c | 198.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0f…30e6backed Over | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 182.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 25c | 130.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 106.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…156dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…a1a1backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf28…9144backed Under | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…bd61backed Under | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…7ecdbacked Under | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 47.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Under | 53c | 45.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba82…600bbacked Under | 53c | 30.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Mavericks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.