NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c646591d39caeded3c2c9b32eff0c78b3730b4db80cb408dc06e6552b8cfc68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 14,038$7,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,299.8 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Under | 52c | 12,000$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 11,796$5,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,133.83 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 9,228$4,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,706.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 3,671$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.92 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 2,332$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.64 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 1,400$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 545$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.4 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 342.92$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 50c | 168$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 52c | 162.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 48c | 146.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Under | 52c | 146.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…43b6backed Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Mavericks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.