TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$345,041
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$345,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,041 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Thunder51c152,764$77,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,475.9125248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Mavericks50c83,868$41,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,600.4229351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Thunder49c60,000$29,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,609.3320055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Mavericks50c50,000$24,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,80051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder50c24,289$12,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,185.0966853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks50c20,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Mavericks52c15,377$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00038649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Thunder48c15,058$7,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,829.981872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks49c15,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks50c13,423$6,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,711.361,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe3…1654backed Mavericks51c7,843$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Thunder52c6,500$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Mavericks51c6,275$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Mavericks51c5,890$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,003.7236351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks51c4,672$2,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.682,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks48c4,502$2,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.9259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Mavericks52c4,300$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,23346928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e04…0336backed Mavericks51c4,292$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,18910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Mavericks49c4,120$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.810451%53 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8567…514cbacked Mavericks51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Thunder49c3,816$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.245348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5945…67cabacked Mavericks50c2,800$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks50c2,702$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.652,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder49c2,497$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.4569852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Thunder52c2,117$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.8317856.2%100 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Mavericks7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14013435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Mavericks50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Mavericks51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02040350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Mavericks49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98027051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Mavericks50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Thunder49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0203661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Mavericks51c1,924$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98111049.1%54 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder49c1,843$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Thunder2c1,729$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.9939018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks51c1,710$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.16,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Mavericks52c1,530$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.5914356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Thunder50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ebf…e50fbacked Mavericks27c1,396$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.5865144.5%290 W · 361 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfce…b388backed Mavericks51c1,314$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.22951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder47c1,282$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.684,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Thunder47c1,181$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.0627840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Mavericks51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60016442.1%69 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5553…9235backed Mavericks49c1,017$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Mavericks49c1,012$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.62,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Mavericks51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51025642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks48c967$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.165,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Thunder49c918.62$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.55556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Mavericks50c886.54$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.2731538.1%120 W · 195 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder49c785.76$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.012,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks51c739.2$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.973,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f8…09f7backed Mavericks51c733.25$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.963938.5%15 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks8c703.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.268,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Mavericks28c599.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17128929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x922d…d82bbacked Mavericks51c589.99$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.93836.8%14 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-33.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xdd36…3f97backed Thunder54c584.08$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Mavericks52c500$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25856348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Mavericks51c490.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Mavericks51c475.43$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4795049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd058…ea19backed Mavericks56c453.3$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.7540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Mavericks47c420.08$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3618140.3%73 W · 108 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Mavericks51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20059140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Mavericks40c392$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0814145.4%64 W · 77 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Mavericks52c383.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…3017backed Mavericks51c370.59$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1892634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Thunder58c332.34$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14113464.2%86 W · 48 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder48c311.32$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1622,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc4…306fbacked Mavericks32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9615844.3%70 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Mavericks51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15318556.8%105 W · 80 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Mavericks51c299.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9966645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6579…b0a5backed Mavericks55c263.64$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1454744.7%21 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Thunder48c260.42$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.4282440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4b…14e2backed Mavericks50c260$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13023547.7%112 W · 123 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Mavericks51c220$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.270153.5%375 W · 326 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Mavericks47c213.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.217432.4%24 W · 50 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Mavericks53c208.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5949852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Thunder49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0865649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d3…02e4backed Mavericks50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe29…1c8fbacked Mavericks51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Thunder50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed Mavericks51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10214445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Thunder48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10426150.2%131 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Mavericks52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410652.8%56 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Mavericks51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…ee32backed Mavericks53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008453.6%45 W · 39 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b20…7c67backed Mavericks53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019552.8%103 W · 92 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Mavericks52c185.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.715448.7%75 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Mavericks10c181.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.441,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Mavericks10c177.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6352643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Mavericks51c172.55$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8863142%265 W · 366 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Thunder49c152.87$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.916552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Mavericks7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1147359.2%280 W · 193 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Mavericks52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7818558.4%108 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Mavericks52c144.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Mavericks51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Mavericks52c136.54$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7132450%162 W · 162 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Mavericks52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.61,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e3f…5bc1backed Mavericks55c127.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf76d…7c42backed Mavericks50c116.84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.