NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32841233b539ed0554f85e62a4097245688469a76e07ab76b97f24af79e5c964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.98 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 3,960$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.29 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 48c | 3,425$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,838$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 49c | 1,776$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.28 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 1,518$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Over | 56c | 1,060$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.8 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 73c | 1,026$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.82 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 53c | 587$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.89 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 54c | 547.69$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.37 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 51c | 511.76$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.76 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 28c | 499.96$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.67 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 483.23$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.95 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 52c | 477.46$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.18 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 305.77$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.73 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Under | 44c | 238$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 196.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 52c | 193.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 171.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 152.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Over | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 127$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 103.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 18c | 92.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Over | 50c | 80.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…6aa2backed Over | 39c | 77.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…3bf9backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…0956backed Over | 52c | 58.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Under | 77c | 50.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a38…7446backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Over | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 36.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 75c | 34.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 55c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Mavericks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.