TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0b56…31f0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NHL, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 52 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-76.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+40.8%+$17.4
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20.89
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$129.71
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$119.3
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$71.7
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$13.37
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+64.5%+$35.3
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$27.5
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$54.9
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 13 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.6
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$15.2
Will Team Spirit win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20.8
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20.4
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$88.99
Will FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+49.3%+$9.9
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN - Map 1 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+194.1%+$26.4
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+125.2%+$20.47
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3)backed M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Jazz vs. Netsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+51.5%+$27.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+125.4%+$44.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+99%+$24.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+85.2%+$9.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C or higher on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$36.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$11.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.