TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,079,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,166,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,079,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,324 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Bulls48c227,983$110,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,120.372,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bulls50c100,000$49,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,849.421,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors51c95,388$48,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,740.1687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Warriors52c85,999$44,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,499.4527747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Warriors50c69,176$34,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,587.7827251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Bulls49c59,958$29,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,279.8711535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Bulls49c51,020$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0009641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Warriors52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,00023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Warriors51c50,000$25,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,50038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Bulls48c50,000$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,999.923551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors51c47,486$24,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,050.892,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Bulls51c45,000$22,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,9503839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Warriors54c33,668$18,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,6225139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors57c29,659$16,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,734.365,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bulls49c26,633$13,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,048.091,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bulls48c21,759$10,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,444.1592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bulls50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Bulls50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00013455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Warriors52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,60031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Bulls48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.9918045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Warriors52c19,251$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,251.4934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Warriors52c19,231$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,230.7717441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bulls49c18,081$8,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,796.6669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Warriors51c17,163$8,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,4101,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Bulls1c16,562$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3967911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bulls48c15,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bulls50c14,289$7,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,156.4476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Warriors50c14,079$7,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,058.3855346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls49c13,547$6,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,624.132,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Warriors52c13,253$6,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,369.522,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls9c12,933$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.581,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls19c12,306$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.981,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Bulls49c12,064$5,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,911.3470147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Bulls48c12,000$5,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7603063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bulls50c10,938$5,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,493.761,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Warriors50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Warriors50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0006352.4%33 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29c…f3aebacked Warriors49c9,823$4,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,009.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bulls37c8,653$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.821,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bulls48c8,647$4,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,150.561,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Warriors73c8,507$6,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,278.057259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Warriors50c8,442$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,221.1917554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Warriors49c8,233$4,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,198.655437%20 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Bulls33c8,071$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65012238.5%47 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Warriors50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00040350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Bulls2c7,974$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6112843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0566…9b36backed Warriors52c7,500$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Bulls47c7,500$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,556.9613743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Warriors52c6,958$3,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,345.182119%4 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bulls5c6,832$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.771,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f6…db09backed Warriors48c6,752$3,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,511.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Bulls49c6,200$3,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,03816641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12e4…2f15backed Bulls52c6,078$3,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,160.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Bulls24c6,076$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.3126038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Bulls49c6,036$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.6410451%53 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfe…0736backed Warriors52c5,945$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,853.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls14c5,939$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.88,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Bulls48c5,609$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,692.0811354%61 W · 52 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors50c5,594$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,802.6874748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9728…0314backed Warriors53c5,300$2,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4915050%25 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Bulls49c5,168$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Warriors70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Bulls48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4007957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Bulls9c4,984$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.116919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Bulls3c4,954$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14827917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls48c4,950$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.871,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Warriors50c4,949$2,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.2736741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Warriors49c4,714$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.2912151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf2…06c2backed Bulls14c4,665$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.7815051.3%77 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Bulls51c4,500$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2954744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Bulls20c4,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Warriors67c4,457$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.2119136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors78c4,289$3,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.984,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Warriors49c4,158$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.3917250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls48c4,062$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Bulls49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96016942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Bulls40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb8…43f6backed Bulls25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Bulls50c3,983$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Warriors49c3,965$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.0656945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Bulls51c3,916$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls6c3,826$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.791,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Warriors53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.582454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa247…fb6bbacked Bulls47c3,738$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Bulls19c3,733$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.3117147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0e9…7b24backed Warriors52c3,725$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bulls18c3,658$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.092,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Warriors49c3,657$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.1424847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Bulls1c3,504$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.784573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…5862backed Warriors49c3,486$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.712142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Warriors53c3,446$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.6562652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934e…e7c0backed Warriors50c3,399$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.821844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Warriors50c3,333$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.528850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Warriors50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50022845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2a…4991backed Warriors64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls48c2,975$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.23,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bulls23c2,894$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.21,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Bulls15c2,800$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bulls22c2,714$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.8285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e39…07ddbacked Warriors76c2,700$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.