NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4faa37b891148968492a3e67bad68dee467ed1d556417333ad63f74a04f5b28e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b63…27a7backed Under | 49c | 41,341$20,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,083.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…43cfbacked Over | 48c | 16,500$7,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,919.85 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5442…6fa7backed Under | 52c | 16,485$8,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,912.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 6,728$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 6,418$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 5,894$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 52c | 3,196$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.92 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 50c | 1,485$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.5 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 1,278$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.77 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 1,204$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.04 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 53c | 1,009$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 47c | 999.97$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.98 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 945.28$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 945$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 565.56$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…40dabacked Under | 46c | 526$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 75c | 440$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…acc4backed Under | 71c | 355.75$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 51c | 229.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 47c | 160.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 50c | 136.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Over | 53c | 39.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 35.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…e049backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa950…4142backed Over | 49c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 53c | 28.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Over | 53c | 27.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…3cd9backed Over | 53c | 22.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Over | 53c | 20.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. BullsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.