NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b643d38e71a155788a294f1a731c92f074f44330f5a09e8a2cbbebd7254809

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $79,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $80,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,854 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd43c…04e8backed Under	47c	59,292$27,934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,357.49	115	35.7%41 W · 74 L	-12.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	53c	10,889$5,761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,761.21	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over	53c	9,542$5,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,057	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over	53c	7,500$3,975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,975	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	52c	5,846$3,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,018.38	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33a…9bf3backed Over	53c	5,298$2,808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,808	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	52c	4,273$2,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,222.12	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	53c	3,400$1,802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,802	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	53c	2,934$1,549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,549.15	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	55c	2,847$1,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,569.52	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Over	53c	2,717$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,440.11	74	33.8%25 W · 49 L	-8.5wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x893b…81a2backed Over	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Over	51c	1,373$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.23	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under	49c	1,222$599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$623.42	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	52c	967.66$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.18	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over	53c	893.09$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.34	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	48c	873.08$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	52c	769$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.88	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Under	48c	582$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.64	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	51c	549.19$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.09	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf85…acc4backed Under	70c	505.21$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.85	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.20per pick	34cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Over	37c	500$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Under	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	48c	404.54$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.97	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	51c	398.64$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.31	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Over	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f3…0d57backed Over	51c	274.16$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.82	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over	53c	264$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.92	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd643…9811backed Under	64c	231.52$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.52	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf531…b062backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	548	38%208 W · 340 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	51c	199.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf139…1d3bbacked Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6611…17e7backed Under	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	135.99$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee8c…ba40backed Under	75c	132.8$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.2	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	76cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Over	55c	124$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	690	49.4%341 W · 349 L	-30.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	45c	123.29$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.05	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	34c	119.7$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…fcf3backed Over	51c	107.84$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd550…c36cbacked Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7972…930fbacked Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-12.3wins	-0.15per pick	63cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f3…4064backed Over	30c	82.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd448…f700backed Under	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	109	53.2%58 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc368…0622backed Over	25c	70$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	151	40.4%61 W · 90 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebac…be55backed Over	55c	66.69$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	121	53.7%65 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…0b8dbacked Under	76c	65$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.55	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Over	55c	63.64$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under	50c	47.32$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.82	106	46.2%49 W · 57 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over	53c	44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.32	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Over	54c	40.74$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5256…24a5backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a57…4f76backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	52c	34.24$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.27	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	50c	34$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d4…828fbacked Over	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under	50c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.16	245	52.7%129 W · 116 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under	50c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.16	326	49.7%162 W · 164 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	53c	32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under	50c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.16	318	52.2%166 W · 152 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	50c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.16	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	50c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.16	251	50.2%126 W · 125 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5748…7b81backed Over	51c	30.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29bd…80c9backed Over	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	186	49.5%92 W · 94 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3162…d21cbacked Over	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	59.1%52 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under	45c	27.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Over	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Under	47c	24.87$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.09	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	45c	23.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43c2…3066backed Over	53c	20.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	56cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0342…8c5ebacked Over	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	64cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	55c	19.2$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.71	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked Over	58c	17.83$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-8.7wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5this page
Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
Warriors vs. BullsWarriors won
Warriors vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
Warriors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Under won
Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event