NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17878deb870331274070b7ef614e13fa014057e64d4037bca1df935327b7400e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 47c | 1,002$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Bulls | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 50c | 456$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 51c | 375.12$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.91 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls | 52c | 365.82$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.23 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Bulls | 52c | 288.19$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Warriors | 49c | 225$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bulls | 51c | 224.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Warriors | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Warriors | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Bulls | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 49c | 185$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Bulls | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Bulls | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Bulls | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 48c | 54.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Warriors | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Bulls | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Bulls | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Warriors | 48c | 31.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Bulls | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…266fbacked Bulls | 52c | 21.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. BullsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.