Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Belinda Bencic vs Elise Mertens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa6cf530aafaad194dfd5815f2a18925a9c229abd8f4afdb984d72822352bd1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bencicof Bencic, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $269,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mertens | 15c | 68,920$10,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,434.52 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bencic | 72c | 65,665$47,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,496.1 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Mertens | 38c | 25,000$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,500 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mertens | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mertens | 25c | 5,540$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.85 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mertens | 7c | 4,400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Mertens | 5c | 1,792$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mertens | 37c | 1,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Mertens | 42c | 1,200$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.54 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mertens | 37c | 981$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.8 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Bencic | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bencic | 77c | 290.65$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Bencic | 72c | 153.89$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bencic | 55c | 51.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Mertens | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Bencic | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.