Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa7c3ebddc54483e45ab02085c70ea5d2b56185961299473cfc144238f76d645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakult Brothersof Yakult Brothers, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Cloud Dawning | 23c | 3,295$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.41 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Cloud Dawning | 2c | 2,300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Cloud Dawning | 2c | 2,300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Cloud Dawning | 2c | 2,300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Cloud Dawning | 1c | 1,449$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cloud Dawning | 20c | 1,121$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Cloud Dawning | 7c | 1,015$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Cloud Dawning | 3c | 950$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Cloud Dawning | 4c | 879.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Yakult Brothers | 79c | 800$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…0175backed Cloud Dawning | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Cloud Dawning | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Cloud Dawning | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…80c1backed Cloud Dawning | 10c | 727.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Cloud Dawning | 30c | 703.14$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.94 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Cloud Dawning | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Cloud Dawning | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Cloud Dawning | 3c | 579.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Cloud Dawning | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Cloud Dawning | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Cloud Dawning | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f3c6backed Yakult Brothers | 73c | 456.25$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Cloud Dawning | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf355…6759backed Cloud Dawning | 3c | 380.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Yakult Brothers | 79c | 316.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Cloud Dawning | 6c | 298$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Yakult Brothers | 73c | 294.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Cloud Dawning | 13c | 278.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Cloud Dawning | 14c | 270.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Cloud Dawning | 17c | 252.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yakult Brothers | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Cloud Dawning | 18c | 246$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Cloud Dawning | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yakult Brothers | 60c | 208$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Cloud Dawning | 21c | 170.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yakult Brothers | 75c | 153.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Cloud Dawning | 16c | 149.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Cloud Dawning | 10c | 113.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Yakult Brothers | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cloud Dawning | 17c | 81.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Dawning | 17c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Yakult Brothers | 68c | 63.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Cloud Dawning | 32c | 56.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cloud Dawning | 34c | 50.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yakult Brothers | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Yakult Brothers | 63c | 45.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Yakult Brothers | 73c | 44.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Cloud Dawning | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 42.8%77 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed Yakult Brothers | 58c | 39.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yakult Brothers | 58c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed Cloud Dawning | 38c | 35.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Yakult Brothers | 68c | 29.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yakult Brothers | 73c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed Yakult Brothers | 53c | 26.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Yakult Brothers | 63c | 26.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Yakult Brothers | 78c | 21.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yakult Brothers | 66c | 21.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Yakult Brothers | 78c | 21.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…b0b1backed Yakult Brothers | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Yakult Brothers | 53c | 19.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed Yakult Brothers | 78c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China PlayoffsYakult Brothers won
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerYakult Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.