Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a7a95f49a66330b4d8f1aea85e9979018fca7b2057648af4366100bc7f85d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakult Brothersof Yakult Brothers, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Cloud Dawning | 30c | 1,661$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.3 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…80c1backed Cloud Dawning | 34c | 1,000$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yakult Brothers | 79c | 770.54$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.13 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Yakult Brothers | 79c | 738.5$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.28 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Cloud Dawning | 28c | 716.14$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.88 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Yakult Brothers | 68c | 688.02$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.4 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Yakult Brothers | 74c | 590.33$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Yakult Brothers | 70c | 548.57$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.57 | 223 | 40.4%90 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Cloud Dawning | 17c | 490$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Cloud Dawning | 20c | 388.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…6407backed Yakult Brothers | 79c | 380.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Cloud Dawning | 29c | 287.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Yakult Brothers | 78c | 255.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cloud Dawning | 26c | 187.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…eb73backed Cloud Dawning | 19c | 181.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Cloud Dawning | 21c | 168.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Cloud Dawning | 24c | 152.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…61dcbacked Yakult Brothers | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 180 | 65.6%118 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Yakult Brothers | 76c | 120.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Cloud Dawning | 33c | 119.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Cloud Dawning | 33c | 109.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Cloud Dawning | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Cloud Dawning | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yakult Brothers | 70c | 98.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Yakult Brothers | 74c | 95.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Cloud Dawning | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf355…6759backed Yakult Brothers | 79c | 89.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Cloud Dawning | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Dawning | 25c | 72.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Yakult Brothers | 79c | 70.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yakult Brothers | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…dbd6backed Yakult Brothers | 73c | 68.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 229 | 61.1%140 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…914dbacked Cloud Dawning | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +53%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Cloud Dawning | 34c | 56.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cloud Dawning | 26c | 55.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Yakult Brothers | 72c | 42.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Cloud Dawning | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 42.8%77 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yakult Brothers | 70c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Yakult Brothers | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yakult Brothers | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China PlayoffsYakult Brothers won
- Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 WinnerYakult Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.