Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa7f00ae144d26ec7202f66e09e865103c2705562acc92452a75070286748daf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 39c | 1,801$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked No | 1c | 1,627$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 2c | 846.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.73 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 664.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 576.72$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 469.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 6c | 408.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 370.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 39c | 369.64$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.72 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 314.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…a395backed Yes | 63c | 295.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 49c | 289.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 154$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…0ccdbacked Yes | 9c | 153.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 128.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 80c | 115$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 15c | 100.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 79.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 27c | 76.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 66c | 75.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed No | 32c | 71.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 49.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 49.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 22c | 48.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 54c | 32.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 66c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 50c | 28.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 27.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 62c | 21.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 79c | 20.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 61c | 17.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.