Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9dd1de91da1a4d39acd81e4e4d7ed58a168444d3f525e795aefdbe1e1c03e6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed Yes | 3c | 688.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 411.15$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 329.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 320.56$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 245.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 208$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 175.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 60c | 128.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 122.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 120.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 115.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 92.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 69.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 31c | 62.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 57.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 57.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 54.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 66c | 47.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 42.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 70c | 40.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 36.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 41c | 35.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 63c | 31.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 35c | 30.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 42c | 24.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 44c | 24.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 56c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.