NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa82b6a59bb6dae227406127dd9a15b7970d6106cc85dee60e8625d7c403ad86

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Bucks, Bulls
Resolved: Nov 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,052 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	55c	3,788$2,069 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,719.14	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf73c…3b19backed Bulls	45c	3,185$1,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,433.25	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Bucks	54c	715$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.9	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls	46c	539.64$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Bulls	46c	499$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.54	381	51.2%195 W · 186 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Bulls	49c	357.14$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks	54c	340$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.4	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bulls	46c	302.13$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.98	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Bucks	53c	249$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.77	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Bucks	54c	118.7$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.6	339	45.1%153 W · 186 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Bulls	50c	110$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Bulls	45c	106$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.7	266	51.1%136 W · 130 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda9…a43fbacked Bulls	50c	85.78$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.89	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x162e…94a4backed Bulls	48c	60.42$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-4.7wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Bucks	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	372	53.5%199 W · 173 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc22…1365backed Bucks	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bucks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event