NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52ce89042114d8b92cf07d2692b98f4e8ad755143c645057d188746ad0468950

Rebuilt 45 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Bucks, Bulls
Resolved: Nov 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,224 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Bulls	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bucks	50c	11,197$5,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,598.5	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	49c	8,981$4,388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,593.85	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks	50c	8,793$4,397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,396.5	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Bulls	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-5.7wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bulls	52c	3,333$1,733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,733.16	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bulls	51c	2,579$1,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,317.57	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Bulls	49c	1,074$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.66	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks	49c	1,073$526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$547.24	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks	49c	1,060$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$536.47	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Bucks	51c	980.39$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.39	72	61.1%44 W · 28 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c8b…b3c3backed Bucks	48c	450$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	42cpaid	+69.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Bulls	54c	445$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.3	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Bucks	49c	310.96$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.08	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bulls	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Bucks	51c	225$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.25	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf36f…fb15backed Bucks	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks	50c	163$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.5	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Bucks	50c	153$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Bulls	49c	150$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Bulls	51c	133.33$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Bulls	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Bulls	49c	99.98$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.99	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Bulls	50c	59.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Bulls	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	141	39%55 W · 86 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Bulls	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7716…a68cbacked Bulls	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Bulls	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks	46c	48.15$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a7…58e2backed Bulls	51c	41.18$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	201	55.7%112 W · 89 L	+15.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Bulls	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	154	48.7%75 W · 79 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Bulls	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2a…845bbacked Bucks	51c	37.63$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.44	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Bulls	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Bulls	51c	35.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e0f…7037backed Bulls	54c	33.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Bulls	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c68…fea4backed Bulls	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f15…4ea4backed Bulls	51c	27.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bucks (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event